By Chris Barber and Charlie Songhurst Founders think they can find mispriced talent. It’s important to be aware of how you’re finding mispriced talent so that you don’t deceive yourself. There are two main ways to beat the market. 1) Pay in effort 2) Pay in uncertainty Paying in effort is well suited for high conscientiousness founders. You’re willing to do the slog. This might mean working hard to get to know every person in a given role in your city. Paying in uncertainty is well suited for high chaos founders. You’re willing to endure low status for a long time. You’re willing to look silly. This might mean betting on unproven talent. Or picking traits that others think matter but you don’t - the fewer traits you’re selecting for, the lower the price. There are two main alternatives. 3) Pay up 4) Pay in mistakes Paying up means offering a deal so good that the talent seeks you out. If you’re paying a salary that’ll lead to generational wealth, talent will find you. If you’re the company that everyone is talking about, talent will find you. If you’re doing yearly tender offers, the talent will find you. If you’ve already hired the famous talent in a specific niche, talent will find you. Paying in mistakes means incorrectly thinking you've hired someone great at a bargain price. This is caused by not being well calibrated to what greatness looks like. The solution to this comes from Vinod Khosla. First, identify the skill you truly need. Do this by asking what’d cause the company to succeed if true, and what’d cause the company to fail if not true. Then look for key products at other excellent companies that had similar answers. Then figure out the people responsible for those products. Then get coffee with a few of those people. Even if you don’t hire them, do this to calibrate yourself. If you think you’re finding "mispriced talent" make sure you know how you’re paying. You’re likely either paying in effort, or in uncertainty. If you’re paying in neither of those, good chance you’re deceiving yourself. Thank you to Cedric Chin for draft reactions. See also: [[The Chaos-to-Conscientiousness Phase Transitions]] Originally posted on [my twitter here](https://x.com/chrisbarber/status/1967961021685043468).